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2024-12-14 01:47:59
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Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities: Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. Improve the fiscal deficit ratio, and ensure that the fiscal policy will continue to exert more efforts. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that the fiscal policy continued the general tone of "positive", which reflected the stability and continuity of the policy, but emphasized "more positive", which was mainly reflected in the increase of deficit ratio and the scale of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds. It is expected that the scale of fiscal expenditure will be significantly increased and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure will be increased next year. The generalized deficit ratio probability in 2025 is higher than that in 2024. In his view, the narrow sense of deficit ratio has a high probability of exceeding 3%, and the improvement of deficit ratio has special significance, which can achieve triple effects. First, the increase in deficit ratio means a further increase in the deficit scale, which is conducive to expanding expenditure, strengthening the ability of fiscal countercyclical adjustment, better preventing risks, benefiting people's livelihood and stabilizing growth. Second, deficit ratio is different from other financial instruments, and the public pays great attention to deficit ratio and its changes. Therefore, fiscal policy should use limited "bullets" to stabilize expectations, and the same fiscal stimulus scale should be reflected in deficit ratio as much as possible. Deficit ratio can better convey policy intentions and has strong policy signal significance; Improving deficit ratio's firm determination to release the central government to stabilize the economy is conducive to stabilizing expectations. Third, the high probability of deficit is still dominated by central government bonds. The form of transfer payment can better ensure the stability of grassroots financial resources and increase the disposable degree of local financial resources, which is conducive to the local government's "three guarantees" work. (SSE)Spot silver fell more than 2.00% in the day and is now reported at $31.26 per ounce; COMEX silver fell more than 3.00% in a day and is now quoted at $31.98 per ounce.Li Guangzi, director of the Banking Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences: The risk of small and medium-sized financial institutions is the focus of risk disposal in the coming period. Li Guangzi, director of the Banking Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that with the implementation of the policy package to resolve local government debt risks, the local government debt risks have obviously converged recently. In contrast, risks in real estate and small and medium-sized financial institutions are still outstanding. In this context, the meeting took the risks of real estate and small and medium-sized financial institutions as the focus of risk disposal in the coming period, which made clear the focus and pointed out the direction for further financial risk disposal. Especially in the field of real estate, because of its long adjustment cycle and wide coverage, it is still the top priority of risk disposal. (SSE)


The Dow Jones Industrial Average was last reported at 44,200.59, up 0.12% in the day.Trump is reported to have talked about dividends and capital gains tax.Russia said that Ukraine used American-made missiles to attack Russian airports. Russian Presidential Press Secretary peskov said today (December 12) that Russia will definitely respond to Ukraine's attack on Russian military airports using American-made army tactical missiles. Sabrina Singh, deputy spokesperson of the US Department of Defense, said on the 11th that Russia may launch the Hazelnut missile again in the next few days, and the United States will continue to support Ukraine in air defense. (CCTV International News)


GBP/USD of GBP against USD fell by 1.27, with an intraday decrease of 0.40%.Famous and excellent products rose by more than 5.5%, and institutions are optimistic about the sustained high growth of overseas markets.Professor Wu Yin, School of Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics: In order to attract more social capital to participate in the construction of industrial innovation system, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that scientific and technological innovation should lead the development of new productive forces and build a modern industrial system. In this regard, Wu Yin, a professor at the School of Economics of Southwestern University of Finance and Economics and director of the Institute of Political Economy, said in an interview that the meeting emphasized the important role of scientific and technological innovation in accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces, and made it clear that the core kinetic energy of building a modern industrial system comes from a number of future industries based on scientific and technological innovation. The meeting also emphasized improving the multi-level financial service system, giving sufficient financial support to potential industries and enterprises, and attracting more social capital to participate in the process of industrial innovation system construction. (SSE)

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